Introduction: Lithium battery technology is accelerating the commercialization, and is developing in the direction of cost and performance balance. In addition to the upgrade of lithium battery technology, with the acceleration of technological iterations, fuel cells, solid state batteries, graphene batteries, air batteries, etc. The battery technology route is in full bloom, so who will be the next generation battery king?

In 2019, the growth momentum of the global economy is weakening, and the international energy market is undergoing profound changes. The transition to "green" has become the main driving force of the energy revolution. At the same time, the global automotive industry is also facing major changes unprecedented in a century. The downward pressure on the industry is becoming apparent. The new energy battery industry is also ushering in major opportunities and challenges with the transformation of the automotive industry.

In this context, on November 27th, ABEC 2019│The 7th China Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum was grandly opened. This forum was organized by the ABEC (Battery "Davos") Organizing Committee and Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance Sponsored by the Battery Hundred People Association, co-organized by the Management Committee of Jiangsu Jintan Economic Development Zone and Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd., more than 800 people from the "political, industrial, academic, research, financial, service, and use" sectors of the global battery new energy industry chain Delegates and journalists from nearly one hundred mainstream media attended the meeting and discussed the road of high-quality development of the new energy battery industry in the post-subsidy era.

Battery technology continues to iterate, market opening attracts foreign capital to come under independent pressure

On the opening day of the forum, Stanley Whitingham, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2019, delivered a speech saying: "Humans have been studying lithium batteries since 50 years ago. This is a long and great process. Now we have achieved good results Achievements. We should use this opportunity to promote the world towards a cleaner and more sustainable direction."

The "Securities Daily" reporter noted that the accelerated commercialization of lithium battery technology is moving towards a balance between cost and performance. In addition to the upgrade of lithium battery technology, fuel cells, solid-state batteries, graphene batteries are now accelerating as technology iterations accelerate. , Air batteries and other battery technology routes are in full bloom, so who will be the next generation of battery kings?

In this regard, Mei Wu, a technical expert of the State Power Investment Group, believes that more than 70% of my countrys crude oil depends on imports, and the proportion of imports is increasing year by year. It is expected to reach 80% in 2025. Therefore, in the view of Mei Wu, energy is developed from high carbon to low carbon to zero carbon, and the development of hydrogen energy is in line with the trend of energy development.

Tomorrow Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. founder and chairman Wang Zhaoyun also said that in recent years, global fuel cell shipments have grown significantly, this year is expected to exceed 650MW; domestic fuel cell vehicles in January-October 2019 has reached 1,391 units, This is an 8.2-fold increase over the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the cumulative fuel cell shipments in 2019 will reach 70MW. In terms of hydrogen refueling stations, so far, 49 hydrogen refueling stations have been built nationwide. Among them, there were 18 new hydrogen refueling stations in China in the first 10 months of this year, the number of which has exceeded that of 2018. It is estimated that there will be about 422 hydrogen refueling stations worldwide this year.

In addition to fuel cells, Yu Huigen, general manager of Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is more optimistic about solid-state batteries. He said that all-solid-state lithium batteries are a strategy that takes into account both high energy and high safety, although there are currently solid-state batteries that completely prevent lithium dendrites. The punctured polymer composite solid electrolyte membrane has not yet broken through, the interface resistance between the solid electrolyte layer and the electrode layer is large, the deposition site and morphology of lithium are not easy to control, the manufacturing process and equipment of high-speed and high-efficiency all-solid-state batteries are not mature, and pure metal lithium batteries There are extremely large volume changes and other problems, but these problems may find a solution within 3 years, a small test within 5 years, and large-scale applications within 8 years.

"The commercialization of battery technology is developing rapidly, and new system batteries, safety technology, fast charging technology, key materials, efficient integration, advanced algorithms, etc. have become the core focus." Yuan Chengyin, general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, said, "Future new Energy vehicles are the mainstream, and electrification is an inevitable trend, but not only electrification represents new energy. In the next 5 to 10 years, it may be a multi-supply energy structure. Fuel cells, pure electric, hybrid power, plug-in hybrids, will Is a complete new energy combination."

Lithium battery companies face numerous tests, the industry calls for policy stability to continue

Since 2008, my country has begun to support car companies and consumers in terms of taxes, financial subsidies and other policies that are conducive to the development of the new energy automobile industry, and has constructed a top-down thinking incentive policy system. From this year, the year when domestic subsidies retreated was the largest, the national subsidy was reduced by more than 50%, and the land subsidy was canceled one year in advance, and the subsequent high valuation bubble of the industry began to retreat. At present, the new energy automobile industry is still greatly affected by policy changes, and the effects of the "double points" and auto consumption promotion policies have not yet appeared, and the industrys call for policy stability is rising.
      According to reporters, the relevant departments are currently considering the introduction of stimulus policies for the use of new energy vehicles. At the same time, at the beginning of November this year, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Doing a Good Job in Utilizing Foreign Capital", proposing policies to optimize foreign investment in automobiles, and requiring all regions to ensure that new energy vehicles produced by domestic and foreign automobile manufacturing enterprises enjoy the same market access treatment.
      It is foreseeable that foreign-funded new energy companies have added more favorable policies, and their layout in China has gradually landed. Japan and South Koreas power battery companies are also making a comeback. So how can independent new energy brands win in the future market competition?
      "The layout of foreign capital in China is fierce, and the domestic first-tier companies have also frequently launched global expansion." Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and secretary of the battery "Davos" organizing committee, said at the forum, " Most of the second- and third-tier brands began to be silent, but some companies began to sprint hard and seek to leap into the first echelon."
      Jiang Wenfeng, deputy director of Shenzhen R&D Center of BYD Lithium Battery Business Group, believes that under low subsidy intensity, higher requirements are placed on the competitiveness of enterprise products and the viability of enterprises. The performance of lithium batteries has been able to support the needs of various power application scenarios, and competition has become fierce. At the same time, the complete R&D and production industry chain of power batteries involves a multi-disciplinary cross. The future competition of power batteries is the competition of the entire industry chain and supply chain.
      In addition to the positive competition in product performance costs, the safety issues of lithium battery products are also increasingly prominent.
In fact, since 2019, frequent accidents, high battery life, low residual value of new energy vehicles and batteries have seriously affected the confidence of the consumer market, coupled with the pressure caused by factors such as the reduction of subsidies and foreign investment into China. The industrial reshuffle has accelerated, and most enterprises faced many "catastrophes" such as "high costs, lower prices, lower demand, difficulty in financing, and difficulty in repayment".
      "The investment in the power battery industry is beginning to cool down with the downturn in the automobile market, and the expansion of production is becoming more rational. A new round of deep reshuffling of the market has begun." Yu Qingjiao said, "At present, there are about 80 remaining manufacturing companies in Chinas power battery. Among them, about half of them can actually achieve installed capacity, and TOP 10 companies account for more than 80% of the market. Some domestic power battery companies began to return to the 3C battery field or move to the energy storage industry in order to survive. Coming listed companies may shrink their investments or return directly to their main businesses."
      According to Gao Weiqiao, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Huayou Cycling Technology Co., Ltd., the governments long-term planning goals have not changed. It is expected that after 2020, the domestic new energy vehicle market will continue to develop well. With a large number of new energy vehicles entering the market, considering the service life of new energy vehicle power batteries, it is predicted that my countrys power battery recycling volume will be about 200,000 tons in 2020, and it will exceed 300,000 tons in 2022.
      "In order to achieve the goal of fuel saving and emission reduction, auto companies adopt a dual strategy. It is expected that the trend of automotive powertrain changes in the next period will be: Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles will remain mainstream in 2019, and new energy vehicles (HEV, EV) will gradually increase after 2020. It has a large market share." Liang Rui, vice president of Xinwangda Electronics Co., Ltd., believes that "the development trend of the global electric vehicle industry is very optimistic. About 11% of vehicles in 2025 are energy-efficient vehicles (HEV)."
      "Overall, the industry is still optimistic about the public opinion, wind direction and confidence of the new energy battery industry, and the industry boom will continue to spiral in the adjustment." Geng Qianxi, deputy secretary general of the battery "Davos" organizing committee, said that in the new On the road to the development of the energy battery industry, it is inevitable that it will experience various "growth troubles". Only "firm confidence to promote high-quality development" is the king.